Local Delivery Statistics: 2026 Market Data & Trends
By Joe SnyderThe local delivery statistics that matter in 2026: last-mile market size, e-commerce and parcel growth, delivery costs, and customer expectations.
The local delivery statistics that matter in 2026: last-mile market size, e-commerce and parcel growth, delivery costs, and customer expectations.
Local delivery has moved from a pandemic-era scramble to a permanent fixture of how people shop. Customers now expect their orders quickly, cheaply, and with full visibility from checkout to doorstep — and the businesses that win are the ones reading the numbers and adapting to them. The global market for last-mile delivery was estimated at roughly $167.36 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach about $348.85 billion by 2033, a compound annual growth rate near 9.8%.
That growth doesn’t guarantee anyone a profit, though. The same forces driving expansion — rising volumes, faster delivery promises, and the expectation of free shipping — are squeezing margins for businesses that haven’t modernized their operations. Here are the local delivery statistics worth keeping in front of you as you run your delivery business in 2026.
The market for getting goods from a local hub to a customer’s door is enormous and still expanding. Analysts segment it by service type, vehicle, delivery speed, and location, but the headline is simple: demand keeps rising. Grand View Research pegs the global last-mile market at about $167 billion in 2025, growing toward $349 billion by 2033.
A few structural facts shape that market today:
The takeaway for an owner-operator isn’t the size of the number — it’s the direction. Local delivery is no longer a nice-to-have add-on; it’s a core channel, and the operational bar keeps rising. Understanding on-demand and crowdsourced delivery trends is increasingly part of staying competitive.
Local delivery growth tracks e-commerce growth, and the e-commerce numbers are still moving up and to the right. In the first quarter of 2026, U.S. retail e-commerce sales reached $326.7 billion, about 16.9% of all retail sales and up 9.8% year over year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Online sales have been growing meaningfully faster than total retail — meaning a bigger share of every dollar now ends in a delivery.
All those orders translate into parcels. The Pitney Bowes Parcel Shipping Index reports that U.S. parcel volume reached 23.1 billion shipments in 2025, up 3.3% year over year, with volumes projected to climb toward 31 billion by 2031. The competitive landscape underneath that number is shifting too: regional and alternative carriers more than doubled their revenue share in a single year, and Amazon Logistics has grown into one of the largest parcel handlers in the country.
For a local delivery business, the signal is twofold. The pie is growing, but so is the field of players fighting for each delivery — including agile regional carriers and merchants who have decided to run their own routes rather than hand every order to a national carrier.
Consumer expectations have hardened, and they pull in two directions at once: people want delivery to be cheap (ideally free) and reliable. A McKinsey survey of more than 1,000 U.S. shoppers found that about 90% of consumers are likely to abandon a cart that carries high shipping costs, and that buyers now rank on-time reliability as more important to their satisfaction than raw speed.
That reframes the whole game. The race isn’t only about being fastest — it’s about keeping the promise you made at checkout. The same research found that roughly half of shoppers actively track their orders to confirm they’re on time, and a majority value the ability to schedule or redirect deliveries. In other words, visibility and flexibility have become part of the product, not a bonus. We dig into this further in our guide to what makes a great delivery experience.
A few patterns every local operator should internalize:
The reason local delivery is hard isn’t mystery — it’s math. The final leg is the most expensive part of the journey. According to the Capgemini Research Institute, last-mile delivery accounts for roughly 41% of total supply-chain costs, and by other measures more than half of total shipping cost lands in that final stretch. Capgemini also warns that businesses running suboptimal delivery models can see profits erode by as much as 26%.
Those costs come from labor, fuel, vehicle wear, and the stubborn economics of dropping single packages at scattered addresses. They climb further every time a delivery fails on the first attempt and has to be re-run. The squeeze is sharpest because the customer increasingly refuses to pay: Capgemini’s figures show the cost to the business of a delivery often exceeds what the customer is willing to pay for it.
Several trends keep upward pressure on last-mile costs:
This is exactly where smart operations pay for themselves. Cutting miles driven, raising first-attempt success, and squeezing more stops into each route attack the biggest cost line directly. Our deep dive on last-mile delivery costs walks through the full breakdown and the levers that move it.
Knowing the numbers is useful; acting on them is what separates a growing delivery business from a struggling one. Statistics let you benchmark your own performance against the market, spot which trends have staying power, and decide where to invest.
A few principles for putting these figures to work:
The data points in one direction: the local delivery market will keep growing, and so will the operational pressure. The fastest way to absorb that pressure is to replace manual planning with modern delivery management software. Done well, the right platform:
At the heart of all of this is route optimization — the difference between a driver crisscrossing a city and a tight, efficient run that fits more stops into the same shift.
Local or last-mile delivery is the final step of the fulfillment journey — moving an order from a local hub, store, or distribution center to the customer’s door. It’s the only physical touchpoint between a brand and its customer, which is why it carries so much weight for both cost and customer experience.
Because it involves dropping individual packages at scattered addresses, with costs from labor, fuel, vehicle wear, and failed deliveries. Capgemini estimates the last mile makes up around 41% of total supply-chain costs, and the customer is usually unwilling to pay the full amount — so the business absorbs the gap.
It can be. Rising e-commerce and parcel volumes mean strong demand, but profitability depends on tight operations. Reducing miles, improving first-attempt success, and automating routing and notifications are what turn growing volume into actual margin.
Low or free shipping, on-time reliability, and full visibility. Survey data shows shoppers will abandon carts over high shipping costs and value an on-time delivery within the promised window more than raw speed.
Start with your routes and your communication. Optimizing routes cuts cost and improves reliability, while automated tracking and notifications meet customer expectations. Good delivery management software like EasyRoutes brings both together in one workflow.
EasyRoutes is a powerful route planning and delivery management app built for delivery businesses on Shopify that want to plan and optimize their routes efficiently.
EasyRoutes can optimize your routes automatically — factoring in service time, delivery time windows, vehicle capacity, and preferences like avoiding ferries, tolls, and highways — then keep your customers informed with tracking links and notifications, and capture proof of delivery at the door.
Companies can focus on their core business and cut hours of manual planning and scheduling, while EasyRoutes takes care of the rest.
You can use EasyRoutes for free, or try any of the paid plans free for 14 days!
EasyRoutes optimizes deliveries using your selected orders, start & end locations, stop time intervals, time windows, and route limits. You can balance routes, respect capacities, and re‑optimize as plans change.
See: Route Options · EasyRoutes 101
Yes. EasyRoutes supports Vehicle Profiles you can configure and assign to routes. EasyRoutes also supports capacity planning via item or weight limits per route. Use these with other options (like time windows, or custom start/end locations) to keep plans realistic and drivers on schedule.
See: Vehicle Profiles · Max items/weight per route · Commercial/GPX Export
Yes. Schedule routes for specific dates/times, and ETAs will be calculated for each stop on a route. These ETAs can be shared via customer tracking links and email/SMS delivery notifications.
Yes. On Premium/Enterprise plans you can display a live driver pin on tracking pages when the driver is 1–10 stops away.
ETAs use route distance, stop service times, and historical traffic, and they update during the day as drivers progress. Accuracy improves when addresses and time windows are clean.
Yes. Create routes in minutes, add last‑minute stops, and re‑optimize during the day. Dispatch instantly to drivers with live tracking and customer notifications.
See: Re‑optimize · Dispatch
Yes. Schedule routes across multiple days with configured start times/locations and add an overnight driver break to maintain accurate ETAs.
See: Multi‑Day Scheduling
Yes. EasyRoutes supports Shopify Local Delivery and can include Pickup orders on routes when you need a driver or staff task at your store or pickup point. Local Delivery instructions appear directly on the stop when available.
EasyRoutes supports delivery photos, e‑signature, driver notes, and automatic timestamps (with GPS location when available) to provide a complete delivery record.
See: Proof of Delivery
Yes. With the Premium plan and above, fully customize email/SMS: add your logo and colors, edit copy/variables, and choose which events send. Works for Shopify orders and imported/manual stops.
EasyRoutes is the AI-native delivery operations platform trusted by 5,000+ businesses across 75+ countries. Plan routes in seconds, dispatch drivers automatically, and delight your customers — from Shopify or any order source. Experience delivery operations that run themselves. Rated 4.8 stars and certified Built for Shopify.
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